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IIASA Conference asks about C&C

April 19th, 2008

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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis star-studded cast ask . . .

“Is the “contraction and convergence” model the only approach?”
Some, including Angela Merkel, suggest the world should aim for
international parity in per capita emissions of greenhouse gases. How
could this be done? What would it look like?”

http://www.gci.org.uk/briefings/IIASA_C&C.pdf

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

“The Way Forward”

Science can help address the problems raised, especially of the
integrated analysis approach as performed by IIASA over the past thirty
five years. For example, agendas for improving human and social capital
and for maintaining natural capital were laid out.
But there was a lack of integration between the two—suggesting an
important focus for future systems research. Likewise the competing
threats of over-consumption and over-population were often discussed
rhetorically rather than analytically.

Many questions arose in the discussions that could be addressed by
imaginative and ambitious systems analysts. These included:
Can we better understand the key drivers and synergies in economic and
human development?

Are the poorest getting poorer, absolutely or relatively or not at all?
Or is it true (as at least one speaker said) that it is the middle
income people who have, relatively, done worst from globalization—and if
so why?

How far can “good governance” solve the world’s problems?

Can neo-liberal economics help the “bottom billion”?

Why are they “trapped in a downward spiral”?

African conflicts in Darfur, Rwanda, and elsewhere are often described
as being essentially either political or environmental in nature. But
which is it? Clearly both contribute, but can researchers disentangle
them in a way that would be useful for peace‑makers?

Can we define a term like “global apartheid” and test whether it
describes the relationship between the rich and poor worlds?

To what extent do rich-and poor-world definitions of development differ?

Does the phrase “global carrying capacity” have any meaning in a world
of fast technological change? And if so, have we passed it?

Are there meaningful “limits to growth”?

Which indicators of educational progress best correlate with
development?

Which is worse: over-population or over-consumption? And what determines
this?

Would a declining world population in the second half of the century
create more problems than it solves?

How can international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions better
target the individuals with the largest carbon footprints?

Some, including Angela Merkel, suggest the world should aim for
international parity in per capita emissions of greenhouse gases. How
could this be done? What would it look like?

Is the “contraction and convergence” model the only approach?

What other “equitable” solutions to climate change are possible?

Under what circumstances are the resource and pollution benefits of
efficiency gains in technology wiped out by increased usage?

What are the key “no regrets” solutions to climate change, and what
barriers are there to implementing them?

How far can induced technological change cut the costs of fighting
climate change?

What are the potential knock-on effects of growing commercial biofuels
for land use, conservation, water supplies, food security and prices and
the natural carbon cycle (draining peat bogs; clearing rainforests)?

How much rainforest can the world afford to save—or afford to lose, come
to that?

What are the constraints on improving global agricultural productivity?
Why are yield increases faltering in many regions?
Is national aggregation of social and environmental data outdated? What
could replace it?

Further Information
The information contained in this brief is drawn from IIASA’s
Conference, Global Development: Science and Policies for the Future,
held at Vienna from 14–15 November 2007. Here, scientists, policymakers,
diplomats, and business people met to rethink the current trends in
global development. More information, including speeches and videos of
presentations, at www.iiasa.ac.at/iiasa35.
The brief was written by award winning environmental journalist Fred
Pearce.

IIASA wishes to thank the generous support for the conference from the
Austrian Federal Ministry for European and International Affairs, the
Austrian Federal Ministry of Science and Research, the Austrian
Chancellery and the City of Vienna.

Mondaq [Oz] fronts C&C

April 17th, 2008

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Australia: Floating The Carbon Dollar
Part 1: The Garnaut Climate Change Review Interim Report
10 April 2008

Article by Brendan Bateman
Key Point

“Garnaut’s Interim Report contends that it is in Australia’s interest to
agree to a per capita emission rights [or] contraction and convergence -
that is, setting budgets initially equal to each country’s current
emissions and then, moving over time, to equal per capita emission
budgets while at the same time driving down the overall global emissions
budget.

This is intended to address both the necessity to start from the status
quo with recognition of developing countries’ claims to equitable
allocation of rights to the atmosphere.”
http://www.mondaq.com/article.asp?articleid=59346

World Bank on C&C

April 16th, 2008

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World Bank on C&C
Climate Change Reducing Vulnerability through Global Cooperation

“Contraction and Convergence is a science-based global framework whereby
total global emissions are reduced (i.e., contraction) to meet a
specific agreed target, and the per capita emissions of industrialized
and the developing countries converge over a suitably long time period,
with the rate and magnitude of contraction and convergence being
determined through the UNFCCC negotiating process.

It applies principles of precaution and equity; principles identified as
important in the UNFCCC but not defined.  ”

Full article can be found here:
http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/ENVIRONMENT/0,,contentMDK:20357008~menuPK:242151~pagePK:64020865~piPK:149114~theSitePK:244381,00.html

“C&C or stuffed ” - Australia’s Crikey.com

April 16th, 2008

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If the global response to climate change is not fair, it won’t happen.
If it doesn’t happen, we’re all stuffed.

And for it to be fair, those of us who live in countries pumping more
than our share of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere are going to have
to accept the principle of “contraction and convergence” — i.e. equal
per capita emissions, which means that a 60% cut in emissions by 2050
translates to a 90% cut for Australia.

This will require more significant changes than have been promised to
date. It means economic reform of the scale seen in the 1980s or greater
– designing markets, taxation, and regulation to make it cheaper to do
business sustainably than unsustainably.”

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Miriam Lyons, Director of the Centre for Policy Development, takes a
look at remaking Australian culture, for want of a smaller topic:
http://www.crikey.com.au/Politics/20071130-Remaking-Australia-part-four-Miriam-Lyons.html?CurrentDate=15%20/%2004%20/%202008

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

New settings for the cultural thermostat

Writing about culture is like trying to catch a butterfly with a pin.
Culture is a complex, living thing, not easily understood, let alone
broken down and built up again into something shiny and new. It’s also
intensively subjective, and attempts to define a single national culture
are inevitably biased and incomplete.

So instead of a plan for “remaking” Australian culture, I’d like to look
at what we “need” from Australian culture. What cultural traits will
make us resilient in the face of global change and capable of dealing
with future challenges and what, if anything, can policy makers do to
help foster those traits?

Exporting cultural progress

I believe that Australia can become a net exporter of cultural progress
by finding Australian answers to a global question — perhaps the most
important question that we will ever be asked. How can we transform our
economy and lifestyle fast enough to prevent not only dangerous climate
change but the irreversible depletion of other “ecosystem services” that
sustain human life on earth?
This may not seem like a cultural question, yet the answer is definitely
more than economic and political in nature. It involves trust, openness
to change, capacity to cooperate and willingness, in some cases, to
prioritise the needs of future generations over the desires of present
ones. It involves a shared sense that “we’re all in it together”, and an
ability to think of ourselves as citizens as well as workers, consumers,
and family members.

In other words, it involves the shift in mindset which Judith Brett gave
in March as the reason that John Howard would lose this year’s election:

… the looming environmental crisis is one which confronts us with our
interdependence, not just on the environment but on each other, and so
it is likely to propel increasing numbers of people into public action
to seek collective solutions to a collective problem.
Governments do not control a nation’s culture, thank God — but they can
have a strong influence over it. Politicians can choose to appeal to the
worst in us or to call on our better angels, to exploit our fears or
engage our hopes, and these choices in turn can shape how we think of
ourselves and each other. This power is then amplified by the media –
journalists have a habit of overstating the extent to which governments
are representative of the population as a whole.

The choices made by the Howard government in exercising this cultural
power were both cruel and negligent. In a decade when we could have been
taking advantage of the resources boom to ease the social cost of
transition to a more sustainable economy, we instead got nothing but
bread and circuses.

(”Circuses” may seem too light a word for the Tampa election, the
invasion of Iraq under false pretences, or the inflammation of racial
tensions for political ends, but the phrase “bread and circuses”
actually comes from Roman times, when senators attempted to keep the
populace under control by handing out bread and hosting gladiatorial
bloodbaths in which slaves, prisoners of war and condemned criminals
fought each other to the death for public entertainment.)

As the Liberal’s new leaders clamour to distance themselves from
Howard’s cultural legacy, it is important to remember that only last
year Howard claimed victory in the culture wars. Very few people then or
since pointed out that this was the equivalent of standing on the ship
of state in a flak jacket under a sign reading “mission accomplished”.

There is a long tradition of politicians promising to govern for
everyone, and there is an equally long tradition of them breaking that
promise when they get a bit comfortable. In 1963 Menzies promised to
govern “for all of you.” In 1996 Howard’s campaign slogan was “for all
of us,” which quickly came to mean “people like us.”

Kevin Rudd’s election night pledge to govern “for all Australians” may
be a variation on a theme, but it’s an important variation. Like a
conscientious Oscar winner who’s anxious to thank everyone, he rattled
off a list of identities so all-encompassing that no one could possibly
feel left out.

The message was clear. Australian politics will no longer be driven by
the Reagan-era maxim that if you divide the country in half, you get to
pick the bigger half.

And not a minute too soon. Mr Howard’s impact on Australian culture
didn’t go as deep as many assumed, as research by Gabrielle Meagher and
Shaun Wilson has found. Australians are still, on average, more
generous, compassionate and liberal than their representatives in the
major parties.

Avoiding distractions

But the culture wars were a very effective distraction from a number of
serious, complex and interrelated problems:

The retreat from Multiculturalism policy robbed us of a flawed but
necessary tool for dealing with diversity. The Department of Immigration
and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs was replaced by the Department
of Immigration and Citizenship (presumably because the Department of
Immigration and Aspirational Monoculturalism wouldn’t have worked on a
letterhead), but the word citizenship seemed to refer only to new
citizens, not existing ones. There is evidence that, all things being
equal, social trust tends to be higher in more homogenous societies.
Couple this with the fact that monoculturalism is both practically
impossible and morally abhorrent, and we obviously need invest a lot
more in other things that build trust: like education, free time, shared
spaces, and universal social services.

We face a future of rising international competition for skilled labour,
rising mobility of unskilled labour and much larger movements of
refugees, and we need to shape our policies on immigration and asylum
seekers to respond to these trends, based on a bedrock of respect for
human dignity. Mr Howard had to work very hard to dehumanise refugees, a
self-imposed heartlessness perhaps symbolised most powerfully in Philip
Ruddock’s reference to a traumatised refugee child as ‘it’. A simple act
would be to open the doors of the detention centres to journalists,
including citizen journalists. Protect detainees from unwanted prying,
but let those who want to tell their stories do so. Hearing the personal
stories of desperate people who risked their lives to escape persecution
is perhaps the most powerful way to breathe some life back into our
better angels. The pledge to dismantle Nauru is a good beginning. In the
long term, we could look at the idea of processing drawn-out asylum
cases in ‘welcome towns’ as recommended by Rural Australians for
Refugees.

If the global response to climate change is not fair, it won’t happen.
If it doesn’t happen, we’re all stuffed. And for it to be fair, those of
us who live in countries pumping more than our share of greenhouse gases
into the atmosphere are going to have to accept the principle of
“contraction and convergence” — i.e. equal per capita emissions, which
means that a 60% cut in emissions by 2050 translates to a 90% cut for
Australia. This will require more significant changes than have been
promised to date. It means economic reform of the scale seen in the
1980s or greater — designing markets, taxation, and regulation to make
it cheaper to do business sustainably than unsustainably.

This is not without danger. When Paul Keating combined radical economic
liberalisation with progressive social policies, it prepared the ground
for both One Nation and the Coalition to associate the economic pain
with the progressive politics. And, even without implementing major
changes, economic pain is on the way, due to a combination of
international instability, domestic profligacy, and the plain old
business cycle. Several economists are already calling Saturday’s
election “a good election to lose”.  A few things will make this easier:

There are signs of a gradual increase in citizens’ economic literacy,
meaning that we’ll be somewhat less likely to blame governments for
those factors which are out of their control.
The last of the resources boom, combined with the auctioning of carbon
permits will be a major source of revenue which can help ease the costs
of transition.

Lastly, and most importantly, the push for action on climate change is
coming from below, not above. Grassroots networks of unprecedented size,
making effective use of communications technology, should be able help
keep climate change policy connected to people’s lived experience.

The blueprint

Together Australians can set our cultural thermostat to a level that
will help keep the planet at a liveable temperature. Somewhere between
“relaxed and comfortable” and “alert and alarmed” - how about “hopeful
and engaged”?

Comments:
A Meyer
Friday, 22 February 2008 10:02:19 PM
Garnault’s carbon emissions countdown is modelled here: -
http://www.gci.org.uk/Animations/BENN_C&C_Animation.exe
http://www.gci.org.uk/Animations/BENN_C&C_Animation.hqx

Nelson
Monday, 3 December 2007 12:59:51 PM
Well done and thanks. What a great idea to leverage the imminent
environmental challenges as a way to building a better Australian
culture.
Chris Doonan
Saturday, 1 December 2007 2:35:24 AM
What an excellent article, it really gets to the heart of the matter.
Climate change is a wonderful opportunity for human beings as a whole to
start working together, its urgent and it matters

UNDP Boss advocates C&C to Head of Governments

April 15th, 2008

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Kemal Dervis
Chief Administrator
UNDP

Advocates Contraction and Convergence on Climate Change

At “Progressive Governance” Conference
Hosted By Gordon Brown
For Heads of Government
5th April 2008

“ . . . . there is an emerging proposal here which I think is important
and helpful, and that is a broad long-term commitment to equal per
capita emissions. It’s a tough proposal and I think one needs to discuss
it, but I do believe that if we take it as part of the progressive
agenda to move to that in the second part of the the twenty first
century, it will be helpful in bringing the world together particularly
also as it brings the developing countries as part of this effort with
an ethical and political commitment, not immediate, but towards
convergence in terms of per capita emissions.”

This formulation is a follow-on to the surprise and welcome turn-around
in favour of C&C by Nicholas Stern and Laurence Tubiana, whose paper
commissioned for the conference stated: -

“An international agreement is essential. It must be based on the
criteria of effectiveness, efficiency and equity. Effectiveness demands
a long-term global goal capping global emissions and providing a
long-term trajectory for investment in low carbon technologies. This
should be at least a halving of global emissions by 2050.”

In his presentation to this conference, Nicholas Stern and Ms Tubiana
then state: -

“A pragmatic principle of equity would require an equalisation of per
capita emissions by then.”

This is a complete turn-around for Stern from two years ago.
He goes on : -

“This will require developed countries to cut by around 80%. But it will
still also require significant reductions over business as usual
trajectories from emerging economies to allow space for the least
developed to grow. Developing country commitments could include energy
intensity or sectoral targets, and will need to be graduated according
to the stage of economic development.”

It is a turn-around because in his world-promoted report of 2006
Nicholas Stern [or was it the invisible hands in Whitehall] dismissed
C&C as ‘an assertion not an argument’ as follows: -

“The notions of the right to climate protection or climate security of
future generations and of shared responsibilities in a common world can
be combined to assert that, collectively, we have the right only to emit
some very small amount of GHGs, equal for all, and that no-one has the
right to emit beyond that level without incurring the duty to
compensate. We are therefore obliged to pay for the right to emit above
that common level. This can be seen as one argument in favour of the
‘contract and converge’ proposition, whereby ‘large emitters’ should
contract emissions and all individuals in the world should either
converge to a common (low) level or pay for the excess (and those below
that level could sell rights).

There are problems with this approach, however. One is that this right,
whilst it might seem natural to some, is essentially asserted. It is not
clear why a common humanity in a shared world automatically implies that
there are equal rights to emit GHGs (however low). Equality of rights,
for example to basic education and health, or to common treatment in
voting, can be related to notions of capabilities, empowerment, or the
ability to participate in a society. Further, they have very powerful
consequences in terms of law, policy and structures of society. How does
the ‘right to emit’ stand in relation to these rights? Rights are of
great importance in ethics but they should be argued rather than merely
asserted.”

The UNDP have written to GCI apologizing for the ‘inadvertent’ failure
to acknowledge GCI as the source of the Contraction and Convergence
(C&C) argument the presented in the UNDP Climate Change and Human
Solidarity Report: -
http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/hdr_20072008_en_complete.pdf

with a commitment to correct this forthwith.
http://www.gci.org.uk/correspondence/Watkins_UNDP_Apology.pdf

This is still rather frail as the actual UNDP Report, on the one hand
called their approach Contraction and Convergence (C&C)[without source
reference to GCI], while on the other it actually quoted Stern’s 2006
arguments rejecting C&C [which Stern has now reversed in favour of
‘pragmatism’ and which Kemal Dervis has now acknowledged as the “the
emerging consensus”] as follows: -

“We acknowledge that many other emissions’ pathways are possible. One
school of thought argues that every person in the world ought to enjoy
an equivalent right to emit greenhouse gases, with countries that exceed
their quota compensating those that underutilize their entitlement.
Although proposals in this framework are oft en couched in terms of
rights and equity, it is not clear that they have a rights-based
foundation: the presumed ‘right to emit’ is clearly something different
than the right to vote, the right to receive an education or the right
to enjoy basic civil liberties.62

At a practical level, attempts to negotiate a ‘pollution rights’
approach is unlikely to gain broad support. Our pathway is rooted in a
commitment to achieve a practical goal: namely, the avoidance of
dangerous climate change. The route taken requires a process of overall
contraction in greenhouse gas flows and convergence in per capita
emissions (figure 1.12).”

Stern and the UNDP have yet to acknowledge the turn-around to C&C in the
name of ‘pragmatism’ and ‘consensus’.

At the same time, while Dr David King has written to attest C&C as “the
approach with the most merits”, he has also now acknowledge GCI’s
provenance with C&C [which his book failed to do] with his publishers
arguing that he was too busy to read the correspondence that he
exchanged with GCI when he was government chief scientist.

Here is a response from GCI welcoming his views but asking if that was
the case, was he also too busy to read key government documentation and
commitments regarding the origin, methodology and application of the C&C
argument: -
http://www.gci.org.uk/correspondence/king_red_file_size.pdf

The position of Potsdam and Schelnhuber in all of this is pretty limp as
well. They provided the hand-drawn and arm-waving ‘C&C imagergy’ for the
UNDP report, and probably don’t even realize they have now been
countermanded by Stern and Kemal Dervis.

My point isn’t that the odds are difficult playing David to Goliath.
My point is that none - but none - of these people and these
institutions have taken on board that the rates of C&C needed to keep
within their 2 degree/450 ppmv upper temperature/concentration limit are
consistent with what the *IPCC-AR4 reported* coupled climate models are
saying, which is you need to complete C&C in half the time you have
arranged for yourselves . . . .

http://www.gci.org.uk/Animations/BENN_C&C_Animation.exe

done for and then ignored by DEFRA.

C&C calls for corporate support

April 13th, 2008

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Contraction and Convergence calls for corporate support
C&C needs you

James Murray, BusinessGreen, 11 Apr 2008
http://www.businessgreen.com/business-green/news/2214112/contraction-convergence-calls

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The Global Commons Institute (GCI), the group campaigning for the
adoption of the Contraction and Convergence (C&C) methodology for
curbing global carbon emissions, will next month launch a logo-based
accreditation scheme that will allow firms to signal their support for
the concept.

Developed in the early 1990s, C&C has been widely praised as potentially
one of the most effective and equitable means of cutting carbon
emissions. The methodology proposes setting a global carbon budget based
on the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that
scientists deem safe and a date by which we have to reach that level.

That budget includes a figure for the amount the world can safely emit
to achieve that stabilisation goal and that figure is divided by the
expected population in the target year to get a per capita emission
entitlement. Each country can then work out its national allocation
based on the size of its population. Countries would then be able to
trade carbon credits based on their allocations as each country’s
emissions converge towards a common per person target.

The proposal has secured widespread support from a number of political
groups, including the African Group of Nations and the Indian
government, and now the GCI is seeking corporate support for the idea as
it seeks to get the model adopted as part of the post-Kyoto agreement
currently being negotiated by the UN.

Under its new Carbon Countdown initiative, firms will be able to sign a
declaration of support for C&C and in return will be licensed to exhibit
the C&C logo as an endorsement of their position and a means of
encouraging members of the international community similarly support the
model.

Speaking to BusinessGreen.com, Aubrey Meyer, the founder of the GCI and
the man behind C&C, said the logo would provide firms with a means of
demonstrating that they are serious about tackling climate change.

“CSR can be seen as a bit of a toothless lion,” he said. “But this is a
way for the commercial sector to demonstrate a commitment to collective
corporate responsibility and indicate that they realise we can’t go on
picking [carbon reduction target] numbers out of a hat and need a
serious science-based approach [to cutting emissions].

He added that the scheme had already secured support from the Eden
Project, the Findhorn ecovillage development, the All Party Group on
Climate Change and the Royal Institute of British Architects. He also
revealed that the GCI was currently in talks with a number of “big
institutions” in the building and brokerage industries.

The accreditation scheme comes as signs are beginning to emerge that C&C
is being taken increasingly seriously by the UK government as a means of
managing emission reductions. Whitehall has been hostile to the idea in
the past with figures such as the author of the Stern report, Sir
Nicholas Stern, dismissing the idea, but according to Meyer there are
signs its position is shifting.

While the government is still not publicly endorsing, a recent paper by
Stern outlined plans for “an equalisation of per capita emissions” by
2050 that Meyer insists represents C&C in all but name.

“We are beginning to see a significantly increased focus on the idea
from policymakers,” he said.

http://www.gci.org.uk/kite/Carbon_Countdown.pdf